Russia’s war on Ukraine has entered yet another brutal phase. Air raid sirens screamed across Kyiv, missile trails scorched the skies, and Ukraine’s weary air defenses lit up the night with intercepts. The barrage wasn’t just large… it was record-breaking. What triggered it may have been a single phone call.
Just hours earlier, former President Donald Trump had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin in what was described as a “frank and direct” phone conversation. Trump, who claims he’s attempting to revive stalled peace negotiations, said afterward that he was “very disappointed” with Putin’s stance. But disappointment quickly turned to devastation. That same night, Russia launched the largest aerial attack of the war, sending over 550 drones and missiles toward Ukraine, most of them aimed at Kyiv.
The Kremlin framed the call as routine, but the timing of the attack was no coincidence. While the Trump administration touted diplomacy, Russia sent a different message… one delivered with fire and steel.
A Pattern of Escalation
Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, Russia’s campaign in Ukraine has steadily escalated. U.S. intelligence sources and Ukrainian military analysts have documented a sharp uptick in missile strikes, drone swarms, and ground assaults across multiple regions, particularly Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia.
In April, Russia nearly doubled its weekly offensive operations, with reports of up to 30 percent more combat engagements than the previous month. Late June saw the first wave of major escalation, with a two-day blitz involving over 500 drones and long-range missiles, including hypersonic Kinzhal and Kalibr cruise missiles. That was, until July 3, the most intense aerial campaign to date.
These attacks have targeted not just military infrastructure, but civilian zones, energy facilities, and transportation hubs, crippling Ukraine’s ability to recover or reinforce. Many Ukrainians report much of the attack was aimed at erasing their culture and national identity as a sovereign nation. Western officials describe this as a ‘punishment strategy,’ designed to demoralize Ukraine’s population and overload its increasingly strained defensive systems, especially as the U.S. has recently diminished its role in rearming the country. According to Kyiv’s mayor, damage from the latest attacks spanned at least six districts and knocked out power to large parts of the city.
Trump’s Diplomatic Gamble
Trump’s return to diplomacy with Putin began earlier this year, with a February 12 phone call that lasted more than 90 minutes. He emerged from that exchange calling it “promising.” Soon after, Trump pushed for a temporary 30-day ceasefire, brokered with help from Saudi Arabia. The ceasefire briefly paused Russian strikes on Black Sea shipping and critical energy sites, and in exchange, Trump slowed U.S. military aid shipments to Ukraine… a delay that came at a deadly cost, as Ukrainians paid with their lives during the renewed assaults that followed. At the time, critics warned that such moves would be exploited. And that’s exactly what appears to have happened.
Following the ceasefire window, Russia resumed operations with renewed force. Analysts now believe the Kremlin used the lull to reposition forces, reload munitions, and prepare its largest offensive since the early days of the war.
Trump’s strategy seemed to hinge on the idea that personal diplomacy with Putin could yield results where traditional statecraft failed. But each round of outreach has been met not with de-escalation, but with escalation. U.S. military advisers now argue that Putin is using Trump’s overtures as tactical pauses, while pursuing strategic advantage on the battlefield.
The July 3 Call: Another Turning Point
The most recent phone call may go down as a defining moment in this pattern. According to Russian officials, the conversation was civil but firm. Putin reportedly reiterated his terms: Ukraine must renounce NATO ambitions, accept Russian control of certain territories, and implement ‘neutral status.’ These are demands Kyiv and much of the international community consider unacceptable… especially given that, at the start of Russia’s 2022 air campaign, Ukraine had signaled willingness to discuss neutrality and distance from NATO, yet Russia invaded anyway.
Trump, for his part, told reporters he had once again pressed Putin for a peaceful resolution and that “there was no progress.”
That same evening, Ukraine’s air raid systems detected incoming waves of drones, followed by missiles, an attack Ukrainian officials say was the most sustained aerial bombardment of the entire war.
Whether the timing was retaliation, defiance, or simply the next phase of Putin’s strategy, the message was clear: the war is not ending, the Kremlin is not negotiating, and Putin was making a point… that he’s in control, and the United States, under Trump, won’t stop him, either out of political calculation or the illusion of diplomacy. It carries a psychological message as well: Ukraine is on its own, and nobody is coming to the rescue.
Was Trump Played?
The question now echoing through Western capitals and military briefings is simple but sobering: Was Trump manipulated by Putin—or was this the intent all along? Whether he was outplayed or complicit, the result is the same, and it spells bad news for Ukraine.
Each time Trump has made an overture, whether slowing arms shipments, pushing for ceasefires, easing sanctions or initiating personal calls… Russia has followed with an escalation. This pattern fits a classic Kremlin playbook: use diplomacy to freeze Western resolve, then exploit the gap to advance militarily.
Trump has argued he’s keeping American troops out of harm’s way and trying to end the war diplomatically, despite there being no U.S. boots on the ground to begin with. But by pausing or delaying critical military aid shipments, including air defense systems and long-range artillery, his administration may have created new windows of opportunity for Russia.
For Ukrainians on the ground, that opportunity meant missiles tearing through residential neighborhoods, drones buzzing over blacked-out cities, and civilians scrambling for shelter in subways.
Global Reactions and What Comes Next
In Brussels, NATO officials are reportedly frustrated. One diplomat, speaking on background, said: “Every time we make progress supplying Ukraine with what they need, Trump pulls the brake, and Putin hits the gas.”
Zelenskyy, in a late-night address, thanked Ukrainian air defense crews for intercepting hundreds of projectiles, but warned that “this war will not be won with restraint.”
Meanwhile, in Washington, congressional Democrats are already demanding hearings on the nature of Trump’s phone diplomacy and whether U.S. intelligence warned of possible consequences. Some Republicans, too, have begun to express unease, particularly those with hawkish views on Russia.
Final Thoughts
If Trump thought his rapport with Putin would yield peace, the last 24 hours should serve as a wake-up call. Russia’s war machine isn’t slowing… it’s accelerating. And each time Trump extends a hand, Putin answers with a fist.
The costs of misreading that dynamic are now being paid not in politics, but in lives, rubble, and smoldering skylines.
