There are many fears spreading around the Internet regarding a potential nuclear conflict between Russia and the West. Now, I won’t say it’s impossible because, well, anything is possible, but I will say that it’s extremely unlikely. When I say that, I mean less than one percent. Let me explain.
I’m a product of the old Cold War, which believe it or not, we’re currently taking part in a second one that started back in 2014. Despite similarities, there’s some very distinct differences. For one, we’re not dealing with the Soviet Union anymore. It was defeated under President Reagan by doing much of the same thing that we’re doing now. We broke them, financially and politically. With that said, Russia simply doesn’t have the resources, moneywise or militarily to challenge the West. Though they are causing great grief to Ukrainians, they haven’t met any of their objectives in that country.
Russia planned to invade and conquer Kyiv in a few days beginning in 2022. That didn’t happen and it wasn’t from a lack of trying. Long before the West began providing lethal weapons to its ally, such attempts were made. First, it took a while for the Russians to even get to the nation’s capital. Their tanks were stuck in the mud for quite some time, I mean that literally. When the soldiers finally did reach their target, the citizens living in Kyiv were ready. I think it lasted a single night before the Russians were pushed back beyond those borders. Putin did manage to capture Mariupol, primarily because logistics were in their favor given its proximity. They could only do that by using air power, which sadly terrorized and destroyed most of the city. We know this because prior to the “open invasion” in 2022, Russia was hiding the fact that it had actually invaded in 2014, beginning with Crimea and the far East near its own borders. Ukrainians in Mariupol held their ground for years up until Russia couldn’t proceed any further without using air assets, which again, could no longer be achieved from the shadows.
Even before 2022, Russia was already taking losses. Logistics due to poor planning and resources were the first problem. From there, they began losing soldiers, leading them to recruit criminals and now even children. Another fact is that Putin doesn’t really go after military targets from what I’ve seen. He terrorizes civilians by attacking their infrastructure and electricity. This of course includes places where Ukrainians work, go to school and live. On a more personal level, Putin desperately attempted to assassinate President Zelenskyy, but like a poor marksman, he kept missing the target, only to be trolled by Ukraine’s President after every attempt in “Ha ha you missed me” videos. I’d like to add that in addition to being witty, Ukrainians have quite the sense of humor, even going as far as changing the road signs in the early stages to confuse the invading soldiers.
All these factors indicate that Russia is a relatively weak country in comparison to what we were all led to believe, especially when one considers that they’re having to beg much inferior nations for drones and missiles, such as Iran and North Korea. It has two things going for it. Propaganda and nuclear weapons. We all know the misinformation has been a great nuisance in western nations, mostly with the goal of disrupting elections and inciting fear into populations. This leads us to their nuclear weapons, which they still have a lot of, though we’re unsure how many are actually functional. If it’s anything like their ground efforts, we can only assume that they’ve not been maintained any better than their tanks and other equipment. Still, it wouldn’t take but a few to wreak havoc on the world, triggering the unthinkable.
Russia’s nuclear arsenal is a threat for certain, which is why the West is using at least some caution. Putin has been threatening their use since this conflict began ten years ago. Since then, however, many bluffs have been made, with all of them getting called out for what they were.
On the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin gave a speech in which he warned that any country attempting to interfere with Russia’s actions would face consequences “such as you have never seen in your entire history.” He didn’t specifically mention the use of nuclear weapons, but he certainly implied as such by ordering nuclear forces to be placed on “special combat readiness” three days later.
That Spring, Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former president, said that NATO’s increased military assistance to Ukraine could lead to a “full-scale nuclear war,” which is no surprise considering his history of making such threats. Though many say it’s the result of a drinking problem, nobody makes any such statement without approval from the Kremlin. Doing so could have that person “accidentally” falling out of a window, or suffering some other similar fate.
As heavy weapons continued to pour into Ukraine from the US and NATO, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the risk of nuclear conflict was “serious” and “real” while Western nations ramped up their support for Ukraine.
After NATO countries, particularly the U.S., agreed to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, Putin warned that any use of such Western-supplied jets by Ukraine would be considered a “nuclear threat.” Russian state TV, an unofficial mouthpiece for the Kremlin, has also discussed the prospect of nuclear war in response to Western aid to Ukraine on multiple occasions, which includes framing the conflict as one that could escalate into a global nuclear catastrophe if Russia feels too cornered.
I’ve lost count of how many nuclear threats that have been made, often as a result of increasing aid to Kyiv. Every time NATO suggested what some might call an escalation, a new nuclear implication was made, which we now know to be bluffs because, well, we’re all still here. Putin knows that we know it’s a bluff, but it does provoke fear, which eventually finds its way into government politics.
Nukes are all that Russia really has when it comes to challenging the NATO alliance militarily. Some may argue that Putin is irrational and if push comes to shove, he may launch. However, we have to look deeper into his psyche. He’s afraid of death, like, very afraid. When Covid-19 was a much larger problem than it is now, he basically confined himself to solitary chambers. Any formal meetings took place with him sitting far, far away from any potential cough or sneeze. Even before and after that, he only goes near his most trusted companions, with doubles and old video being used to convince the population and the world that he’s more social than he really is. Any type of nuclear exchange would likely be the end of him, or at least his role as a respected leader, which can be just as bad in Russian politics.
The US and Russia have had much closer confrontations in the past. The Cuban Missile Crisis and Able Archer are at the top of that list. Though the risk is small, it can’t be ignored, which is why the West uses extreme caution before proceeding with anything that might lead to that outcome. Russia has made clear in the past that such weapons would only be used if it were facing an existential threat. They’ve said any attempt to fire on Crimea or its homeland would be considered as much, yet both have happened multiple times with no response, other than words. Even dating back in history to other conflicts, the US has armed Russia’s enemies with no nuclear Armageddon taking place. It’s just as unthinkable to them as it is to the rest of the world, which is why short of a miscommunication or critical error, it’ll never happen. Even at that, there are safeguards still in place believe it or not.
Now for those that say even a 0.00001% percent chance is still too much of a risk, despite an asteroid impact probably being at least just as likely. Failing to stop Russia’s imperialistic intentions could increase those odds much higher. Putin will not stop with Ukraine if he’s allowed to continue. He will make threat after threat until he wants something that we simply can’t give up, like a member of NATO. Though his military may fall short, even an attempt could be devastating in that scenario, especially if he manages to absorb the military of nations such as the Baltics to use against the rest of Europe. I’m not saying that would be easy, but even an attempt could trigger Article V of the NATO treaty, which means an attack on one is an attack on all. That, and that alone has kept the peace in Europe since World War II. But if we appease a bully like Putin, just like on any grade school playground, the bully will only get more aggressive. History has proven this time and time again. We can not bend the knee to his ambitions under threat any different than we should any other terrorist, which is all he is when it comes down to it. This is why nations bordering Russia deeply feel more action is needed to push the bear back into its cage. They know exactly how ambitious the Kremlin can be, regardless of how many soldiers Moscow might lose in the process.
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) is still an effective deterrent against a nuclear conflict, as it has been since the first weapons were ever used. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s the next best thing. Western leaders will use caution, but we should have some faith that they know what they’re doing. They’re bound to be aware of facts that we’re not privileged to. They also don’t want a nuclear war any more than the rest of us. I do believe we should lift many of the restrictions that have been placed on the use of western weapons against Russia, but I also don’t know what those that make the decisions know, nor does anyone else. Nevertheless, we’re in it now so if we’re going to help Ukraine win, then we need to help Ukraine to win.
